With 25 days to go, the polls have Obama ahead by 5.6 points in the national poll and ahead in 7 of the 8 battleground states still in play, of which he only needs to win 1 to take the White House. His favorables are up. John McCain's are down. Barack and Joe Biden have won all 3 of the debates that have taken place thusfar. Everything is starting to point to an Obama landslide, with very little time left for things to change meaningfully.

Just Win One

Right now Barack has 264 electoral votes looking solid. He only needs 270 to win, meaning he needs to win 1 of the 8 final battleground states still up for grabs.  From West to East, they are Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. George Bush won all 8 of these in both 2000 and 2004, but the polls currently show Obama ahead in all of them except Indiana. Obama only needs to win ONE of these 8 to win the presidency. I hope it's my home state of Colorado that puts him over the top.

A Silver Lining In the Economic Meltdown

More than anything else, Obama's surge in the past 3 weeks is due to an external force- the current economic crisis that has caused more than 69% of Americans to cite the economy as their #1 issue in this election. The perception, whether real or imagined, that John McCain is an extension of the last 8 years of economic policy has created a political landscape where it's almost impossible for him to win. By default, Obama is the beneficiary. You won't hear me complaining.

The Only Thing That Keeps Me Up At Night

There's still 1% of me that worries that a country that was able to elect George Bush TWICE is still capable of letting latent intolerance seep into their vote. Should we worry that a meaningful number of people are saying one thing in public to seem tolerant, but when they're alone in an anonymous voting booth, they'll suddenly feel less comfortable casting their vote for a black man? (exhale) I know I'm wrong on this... I better be.

The party will be one Friday a month.  Hope to see you there!

I spent most of the afternoon thinking about how this mess is all likely to affect me and my friends, and after talking to my Dad and a couple other people I trust I've come up with a few thoughts.

The Good:

1. No matter how bad this gets in the next 12-24 months, I'm only 28 years old, have a great job, and 30 years of earning power ahead of me. My investments aren't overexposed to this and will likely weather the storm. So all in all, any downturn right now isn't really going to affect me in the long term- I'll be fine and my friends will be fine too.
   
2. There will likely be great opportunities in the next 24 months to invest near the bottom of the financial services, housing, and insurance sectors. Assuming the US economy cycles back, as I'm confident it will, the people who use this downturn as an opportunity to get in low in some industries that have gotten killed lately will enjoy the rebound.
3. In particular, I wonder if there will be a dip in the NYC housing market that will allow me and a lot of my friends, who may be looking to purchase first homes in the next couple years, to get a good deal on a house. That's assuming we can get a loan in a credit tight market, but I think most of us have pretty bitchin' credit so we should be fine.

The Bad:

1. This is likely to adversely affect my adopted hometown of NYC more than any other place on the planet. I feel bad for a lot of my friends who work in finance who have seen their jobs and/or bonuses go up in smoke over the past few weeks. Their pain will be shared by the whole city, as all of the companies designed to service them (like my company SW) will get squeezed. Not fun times in NYC...
2. Our current government, and in particular our President, have once again shown an embarrassing lack of competence. Both parties agree that action must be taken and yet the bill fails by 13 votes? Are you kidding me? The crazy thing is that the Democrats have enough votes to pass it 5 minutes from now but their afraid to do so without getting enough Republicans on board so they can call this unpopular (but necessary) legislation a 'bi-partisan' bill and save their own political necks. FAIL.

The Other:

1. I like Fred Wilson' idea about a price index for the Assets the government bus if this all goes through
   
2. Pete Rojas is right about all of these people saying that this is the start of a socialist state
   

Anyways... here's hoping they get something passed in the next couple days. Obama came out today after the bill failed to pass and told everyone to chill out and be patient- that something was going to get done soon. I hope my boy is right.

This vid is super-duper weird but is worth checking out because it includes some live footage as well as some insight into the general aesthetic of the group.  Dig it... and dig King Khan & The Shrines.  Out.